A spiderweb of problems and riches

Has the Lower Churchill finally gotten the better of Premier Danny Williams?

It certainly seems so.

Last week in the House of Assembly, Williams dramatically changed his tune on the subject, saying that there are no 'finite' timelines for the development of what would be one of North America's most important hydroelectric projects.

That's a big shift from the position he's held on the Lower Churchillvfor the last seven years. Since coming into power, 'can-do' Danny Williams has revelled in setting timelines for the project to be completed. His most recent target was 2015.

But now, it seems, all that has changed. But why? Why can't Williams get it done?

Glad you asked, because there's no one simple answer. There are a bunch, and that's probably why Williams has finally looked in the mirror, let out a big sigh and then decided he needs to change his language on the project and drop all references to deadlines with real dates attached.

Firstly, there's the (as Williams described it) 'finalization of the aboriginal piece'. Don't discount the magnitude of this reason, because until the Labrador Innu have 100 per cent signed off on the New Dawn Agreement, there is no deal. And yes, while a memorandum of understanding has been signed, this wouldn't be the first time a change in the political landscape of the Innu Nation sparked a wholesale reversal of support for a project like the Lower Churchill.

Then there's required support for the project from Ottawa. Stephen Harper knows that developing the Lower Churchill is good for his government and good for Canada, but don't think Harper has forgotten the ABC campaign and how it helped ensure he didn't get a majority in the last federal election. So while Harper wants the project developed, he's probably not too keen to hand Williams such a massive victory. Harper probably figures that the Lower Churchill will still be a good idea after Williams has left politics.

Finally, and most importantly, there's Quebec. As much as Williams loves to tell Newfoundlanders and Labradorians that he'll simply bypass Quebec and run undersea cables onto the Rock, down the province and across the Cabot Strait into Nova Scotia and beyond, that's simply not the most economically viable way to get the power to the hungry U.S. and Canadian markets. Compared to making a deal with Hydro-Quebec, the undersea route is a very expensive option - expensive enough to make Williams think twice about whether it's all worth the hassle.

And therein lies the rub. Morally, dealing with Quebec is an option Williams simply cannot stomach. His deep-seated anger over the Upper Churchill deal and Quebec's total refusal to do business on any kind of ethical level in regards to hydroelectricity makes that option a non-option.

So expect Williams to continue ranting and raving at Quebec at every turn. Quebec is a perfect target for whipping up a frenzy that diverts the people's attention when things aren't going well.

Expect Williams to keep publicly saying that he intends to send the power through Newfoundland. Expect him to do it right through the 2011election campaign, where he will win another big majority. And then, maybe a year or 18 months later, expect him to announce that the time has come for him to leave politics.

When it's all said and done, it seems, the Lower Churchill will be exactly what it is now: breathtaking natural beauty, and from a political standpoint, an all-too tempting spiderweb of problems and potential riches.

Guest editorial by Andrew Waugh, former editor of the Labradorian, who writes from Dartmouth, NS

Wisdom from the Masters

"I thoroughly disapprove of duels. If a man should challenge me, I would take him kindly and forgivingly by the hand and lead him to a quiet place and kill him."

-Mark Twain